Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

Prediction market on manifold. "Humans begin using speech to pass on what they've learned within a lifetime and then immediately become superintelligent (compared to other animals)" and "AI begins using continual learning to pass on what they've learned in-context within RL and deployment and then immediately becomes superintelligent" don't analogize perfectly, but it's close. Will ASI happen less than 365 days after a frontier-ish AI company deploys better-than-nothing continual learning? N/A if ASI happens first Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Continual learning is defined as models being able to learn new things at the weights level without being retrained from scratch. Key distinguishing features: Current training loops (retraining from scratch or from base model) do not qualify A rough indicator: continual learning would reduce the time between models knowing new things to under ~10 days (vs. current ~40-day release cycles) Creator will go with community consensus on whether a specific system qualifies Update 2026-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Continual learning does not require per-user weight modification — it can still qualify even if all users receive the same set of weights from the provider. Provider-level updates are sufficient.

24h Volume: $432. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 4/8/2033.