Will the June 2026 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number be greater than it was for May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. NPR Michigan Public May 27, 2026 by Edith Pendell: [Consumer confidence reaches all-time low amid rising gas prices, UM study finds](https://www.michiganpublic.org/economy/2026-05-27/consumer-confidence-reaches-all-time-low-amid-rising-gas-prices-um-study-finds) > The U of M [<u>Surveys of Consumers</u>](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)' May 2026 index of consumer sentiment dipped to a record low in its third consecutive month of decline. Consumer sentiment measures how optimistic or pessimistic people feel about their personal finances and the broader economy. According to Director Joanne Hsu, nearly 40% of people interviewed for the May survey mentioned gas prices when asked about their personal finances. The U.S. military campaign in Iran has caused&nbsp;[<u>supply disruptions</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/27/business/hormuz-global-shortages-gas.html) in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is vital for oil and natural gas shipping. Hsu said people primarily experience geopolitical situations like the conflict in the Middle East through their impacts on the prices of everyday items. The surveys, collected monthly, also measure people’s feelings about their personal financial prospects and how they expect factors like unemployment, interest rates, and inflation to change in the future. The group has been collecting data across the United States since 1946. A FRED chart with the complete data can be found [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT).

Resolves: 6/12/2026.