Will any US state secede before 2030?

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if any US state achieves practical independence from the United States, meeting all of the following criteria for at least one continuous year: The state’s government formally declares independence from the United States. The state ceases participation in US federal elections. The state government no longer recognizes the authority of US federal courts, agencies, or law enforcement. The state’s government collects taxes and controls its own borders without federal enforcement or interference. The state maintains a functioning government that provides essential services, including law enforcement and a court system, independently of the US federal government. If a state meets these criteria but is subsequently reabsorbed into the United States before the one-year threshold, whether through negotiation, collapse, or successful US military occupation, the market will resolve NO. If the United States and its constituent states cease to exist before 2030, this market will resolve N/A. Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): De Facto Independence Timing The state must be de facto independent for at least one continuous year. This one-year period must begin no later than the end of 2029. Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Territorial Control Update The seceding state is required to control the entire county containing its capital in order to satisfy the territorial control criterion.

24h Volume: $31.569. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2030.