Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?

Prediction market on manifold. Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases. I am open to arguments and will aim to resolve according to the the spirit of the question. That being said, to provide some insight into what I will be looking for, I imagine that a "coup attempt" is a serious, deliberate effort to forcibly seize the federal executive branch of the United States. The effort may be successful or unsuccessful. This question resolves YES if a coup attempt is made against Donald Trump during his second term, and NO on 21 Jan 2029 if no coup attempt has occurred. This question may also resolve NO early if Donald Trump ceases to be US President and therefore it is not possible to coup him (e.g. death, resignation). For the coup attempt to be "against" Donald Trump, the aim of the coup would be to disempower Trump - a coup aimed at empowering Trump, such as an autocoup, would not count as a coup attempt "against" Donald Trump. examples: credible evidence of coup plotting that was never taken anywhere would not count use of the 25th amendment by JD Vance and Trump's cabinet would not count demonstrations calling for the government to resign would not count; demonstrations may, however, co-occur alongside an effort that directly seizes the president/relevant institutions of power a massive national protest that results in Donald Trump's resignation or flight from the country would not count as a coup the assassination of Donald Trump would not count as a coup attempt unless paired with other actions that are typical of an effort to seize state power, e.g. militias/military capturing strategic buildings in Washington DC the Wagner-style rebellion of US military personnel that march on Washington DC intent on seizing power would count, even if they fizzled out or were thwarted

24h Volume: $25. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/22/2029.