Will federal courts block the USPS mail-in ballot restrictions before Election Day?

Prediction market on metaculus. Mail-in voting, also known as postal voting, has a long history [in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postal_voting_in_the_United_States), though it has increased in popularity and salience since the coronavirus pandemic prompted [many more Americans](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postal_voting_in_the_2020_United_States_elections) to vote by mail in 2020. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly and for years [expressed concern](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903886567/trump-while-attacking-mail-voting-casts-mail-ballot-again) about mail-in voting, suggesting that it creates too great an opportunity for election fraud. Every American state offers at least some form of mail-in voting: In many states, voters may choose to vote by mail for any reason at all. In some other states, voters may vote by mail only if they have a [statutorily approved reason](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-2-excuses-to-vote-absentee) (for example, because they will be traveling on Election Day, because they are unwell or disabled, or even simply because they are aged). Finally, in still other states, elections are held entirely via mail, and all eligible voters receive a mail-in ballot without needing to request one. Nevertheless, on March 31, 2026, President Trump issued [an executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/03/ensuring-citizenship-verification-and-integrity-in-federal-elections/) calling on the Postmaster General to issue regulations requiring individuals to enroll with the United States Postal Service in order to be eligible to transmit a ballot through the mail. The executive order also calls on the Secretary of Homeland Security to assemble lists of U.S. citizens age 18 and order in each state and to send those lists to each state's election officials. This executive action was immediately challenged in federal court. On April 1, 2026, various organs of the Democratic Party [filed suit](https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/1-2026-04-01-Complaint-2.pdf) in federal district court in Washington, D.C. On April 2, the League of Women Voters (LWV) and other organizations [filed suit](https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-02-Complaint.pdf) in federal district court in Massachusetts, and the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) and other organizations [filed suit](https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-02-Complaint-1.pdf) in D.C. federal court. On April 3, [various blue states](https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-04-03-Complaint-1.pdf) also filed suit in Massachusetts, and [the NAACP and other organizations](https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/gov.uscourts.dcd_.291146.1.0DD.pdf) also filed suit in D.C. The three lawsuits filed in D.C. were consolidated, and a group of red states were allowed to intervene as additional defendants. The consolidated cases are currently being heard by [Judge Carl Nichols](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_J._Nichols), a Trump appointee. On May 28, 2026, Judge Nichols [denied plaintiffs' request for a preliminary injunction](https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/zdvxgzbdnpx/DCD%20-%20Mail-in%20ballot%20ruling%2020260528.pdf), stating that until the Postal Service took further action, the plaintiffs' claims were not ripe. The two lawsuits filed in Massachusetts are both before [Judge Indira Talwani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indira_Talwani), an appointee of President Barack Obama, who has refused to transfer the cases to the D.C. court. The two lawsuits have been partially consolidated, and Judge Talwani has allowed the group of red states to intervene in the LWV's suit but not in the suit brought by blue states (though the red states are currently appealing that latter decision). Judge Talwani is scheduled to hear arguments on the LWV plaintiffs' request for a preliminary injunction and the blue states' request for a permanent injunction on June 2, 2026. Decisions granting or denying injunctions [may be appealed immediately](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/1292).

Resolves: 11/3/2026.