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Prediction market on manifold. Will the UK Conservative and Reform parties merge or cooperate closely before the end of the next election? Criteria and examples: During the next election campaign, if parties withdraw candidates or selectively place candidates to support each other winning more votes, this resolves YES If there is a (semi-)formal agreement to support each others' activities in parliament during this cycle, resolves YES Examples: YES: A formal agreement is established to support each others actions or vote in the same way YES: The leadership announce an agreement to support each others actions or votes in the same way (the intention here is to avoid being hung up on having a 'signed piece of paper') YES: The leadership of the parties announce an intention to jointly contest the next election Exceptions Does not include general tendency to vote in the same way due to shared politics Does not include individual cases of member cooperation on actions, nor a general trend of the same without some kind of official acknowledgement Defection/merging: If in the context of either party ceasing to exist: if more than 33% of MPs from the ceasing party join the other party, resolves YES, otherwise NO If both parties continue to exist, but a majority (more than 50% of MPs) join the other party, resolves YES Resolution time: I will resolve early if either party ceases to exist. YES if the defection/merging criteria above are met, NO otherwise. I will resolve YES early if there is a mass defection meeting the defection/merging criteria above. This will also count if cumulative defections over time meet the criteria. Otherwise it will end on the day the results of the next general election are announced. It may potentially be delayed if there are rumours of collaboration during the election campaign that are yet to be confirmed. Very happy to discuss and further specify resolution criteria I won't trade in this market Added additional 1,000 subsidy
24h Volume: $1,266. Liquidity: $2,000. Resolves: 1/18/2030.