Israel enters into a new war in 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Declared wars resolve YES. Major operations that are not official declared resolve partial at 50%. Examples of past conflicts that, if they'd started in 2026, would count: Six-Day War, First (1982) Lebanon War, Operation Protective Edge (2014). I will use my best judgment as to what counts as a major operation. If it feels like an edge case, I'll resolve somewhere between 0% and 50%.

24h Volume: $100. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.