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Prediction market on manifold. Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20). Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election. Will the pink tide recede? A country is considered governed by leftists if a party affiliated with the São Paulo Forum is part of the governing coalition, or is the party of the president. A majority is 11 or more countries (50%+1). Latin America is defined as all of South America except for Guyana and Suriname, all of Central America except for Belize, plus Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. For convenience, below are lists of Latin American countries with their approximate next election date, grouped by political alignment and democratic competitiveness. Leftist government, not democratically competitive: Cuba: early 2023 (one-party state) Venezuela: mid 2025 (no viable non-leftists) Nicaragua: Nov 2026 (no viable non-leftists) Leftist government, democratically competitive: Mexico: Jul 2024 Honduras: Nov 2025 Panama: May 2024 Dominican Republic: May or Jul 2024 Colombia: Jun 2026 2025 Peru: Apr-Jun 2026 Bolivia: Oct 2025 Brazil: Oct 2026 Chile: Nov 2025 Argentina: Oct 2023 Non-leftist government, democratically competitive: Guatemala: Jun 2023 El Salvador: Feb 2024 Costa Rica: Feb-Apr 2026 Ecuador: Feb-Apr Paraguay: Apr 2023 Uruguay: Oct 2024 Non-leftist government, not democratically competitive: Haiti: unknown (elections delayed since 2021)
24h Volume: $20. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2027.