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Prediction market on metaculus. The Makerfield parliamentary by-election is scheduled for Thursday, June 18, 2026, following the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons on May 14, 2026. The vacancy was widely understood to have been created to allow Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017 and a former MP for Leigh (2001–2017), to return to the House of Commons. Burnham is standing as Labour's candidate, with Robert Kenyon (Reform UK's 2024 candidate in the seat) as Reform's nominee. At the 2024 general election Labour won Makerfield with 45.2% to Reform UK's 31.8%, a Labour majority of about 5,400 votes. The political picture has shifted sharply since: at the May 7, 2026 Wigan local elections, Reform UK won every council ward inside the Makerfield constituency, taking roughly half the vote against Labour's mid-20s, implying a swing of around 18 points from Labour to Reform versus 2024. A Survation modelling exercise published in May 2026 gave two scenarios: with a generic Labour candidate, Reform led 53%–27%; with Burnham as candidate, Labour led 45%–42% and was given roughly a two-thirds chance of holding the seat. Commentators including Sir John Curtice have suggested Labour's chances depend almost entirely on Burnham's personal vote. The Green Party is also fielding a candidate, which could split the anti-Reform vote, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are expected to stand. The result will be declared by the Acting Returning Officer for Wigan in the early hours of June 19, 2026, with official results posted on Wigan Council's elections page. `{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "5face044b554fd8a", "sheet_id": "5"}}`
Resolves: 6/19/2026.