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Prediction market on manifold. Thacker Pass to report at least 10 tonnes of production of Lithium in 2027 Resolution criteria Resolves YES if Lithium Americas (LAC) reports that the Thacker Pass project produced at least 1,000 metric tonnes during the 2027 calendar year (Jan 1–Dec 31, 2027), counted as tonnes of lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) or “LCE” as stated by the company. Quarterly figures may be summed to a 2027 total. Pounds/short tons will be converted to metric tonnes (1 t = 2,204.62 lb). Acceptable sources: Lithium Americas’ SEC filings (10‑K/10‑Q/8‑K) or official press releases/investor reports. If both production and shipments are disclosed, “production” governs; vague “first production” without tonnage also counts if reported in at least two places . If no 2027 production tonnage is disclosed in company filings or releases by the time the 2027 Form 10‑K is published, resolve NO. (sec.gov, lithiumamericas.com) Background Thacker Pass (Nevada) is being developed by a JV of Lithium Americas (62%) and GM (38%). Phase 1 targets 40,000 t/y of battery‑grade lithium carbonate. (lithiumamericas.com) The project reached FID in April 2025, is fully financed for Phase 1 (incl. DOE loan support and Orion investment), and targets Phase 1 completion in late 2027. (lithiumamericas.com, lithiumamericas.com) Considerations Company guidance targets mechanical completion in late 2027 with a 6–12 month commissioning/ramp, aiming for full‑capacity production in 2028—implying any 2027 output, if reported, could be limited. (lithiumamericas.com, lithiumamericas.com) If it helps... The manifoldbot Python package makes it easy to participate in markets like this one.
24h Volume: $5. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/29/2028.