When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

Prediction market on manifold. Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time). In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count. Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur. Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused. Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028. The options would resolve as follows: "By Dec 31, 2025": Resolves NO on Dec 31, 2025. "By Dec 31, 2026": Resolves NO on Nov 20, 2028. "By Dec 31, 2027" and later options: Resolves YES on April 15, 2028 Clarifications/details: Launch time is defined by the moment that the rocket leaves contact with the ground. To count as a successful initial launch, the rocket needs to bring its payload to an orbital trajectory. To count as a successful reuse launch, the rocket needs to get at least 1 mile off the ground while remaining substantially intact. "SpaceX" also includes any company affiliated with SpaceX or effectively controlled by Elon Musk. To count as the same booster, it needs to re-use a significant part of the dry mass including at least one engine. If a rocket is re-launched more than 2 years after its initial launch, it will not count for this market. (Although in theory if it was launched a third time within 2 years of the second launch, then the date of the second launch could count. Essentially, after two years of ground time it is considered a fresh rocket.) A year is defined as a calendar year (i.e. to the same month, day and time the following year). Launches on February 29 will be counted as if they occurred March 1. Launches before Jan 1, 2023 (e.g. the Space Shuttle) do not count for this market. Update 2026-04-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding engine reuse: If a booster's engines and body are each reused on separate future launches (rather than together), that can still count. However, replacing all engines on a 'reused' booster means it does not satisfy the requirement to re-use a significant part of the dry mass including at least one engine.

24h Volume: $10. Liquidity: $1,030. Resolves: 1/1/2032.