Elon Musk significantly backs a third party in Midterms?

Prediction market on manifold. From [tweet]Forecasters estimated the probability that Elon Musk would significantly back a third party in the midterm elections to be 27% (range: 10% to 50%). This would involve committing significant sums of money (>$100M), making public endorsements comparable to those he made during the 2024 Presidential campaign, or even setting up a third party himself. For the purpose of this market, these are considered central examples of the kind of clear backing that would resolve this market positively.

24h Volume: $510. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 11/5/2026.