Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves: YES - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had NOT used tactical nor strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day, and not uses them for at least 4 weeks after that day. NO - if Ukrainian army has de-facto control over at least 50% of Crimea territory, and Russia had used tactical or strategic nuclear weapons against Ukraine before that day or within 4 weeks after that day. N/A - If the war ends before Crimea is liberated by Ukranian forces, including the case where Crimea is returned to Ukraine as part of a peace deal. The intention to estimate whether Russia is likely to use nukes to prevent loosing Crimea. Close date updated to 2024-01-01 3:59 am

24h Volume: $10.183. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.