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Prediction market on metaculus. The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced biennial Rajya Sabha elections for two Jharkhand seats falling vacant in 2026, with the following schedule: notification on June 1, 2026; last date for filing nominations on June 8, 2026; scrutiny on June 9, 2026; withdrawal deadline on June 11, 2026; and polling (if needed) on June 18, 2026. In the 81-member Jharkhand Legislative Assembly, which votes in this election, the ruling INDIA bloc (JMM-Congress-RJD) holds roughly 56 seats while the NDA (BJP-AJSU) holds roughly 24. With a quota of ~28 first-preference votes needed per seat, the JMM-Congress alliance is heavily favored to win both seats — JMM and Congress have publicly agreed to contest one seat each. Despite lacking the numbers, the Jharkhand BJP state election committee publicly resolved in late May 2026 to field a candidate for one of the two seats, with state leadership stating the party would contest 'not merely to contest but to ensure victory.' However, as of May 31, 2026, BJP had not publicly announced a candidate name or confirmed that a nomination paper had been filed with the Returning Officer. Filing a nomination requires the candidate to submit Form 2C, security deposit, and proposers from among sitting MLAs at the Returning Officer's office (typically the Jharkhand Assembly Secretariat) by 3:00 PM IST on June 8, 2026. There is historical precedent for parties announcing an intent to contest and then withdrawing before nomination if the numbers are unfavorable — for example, parties sometimes choose not to file rather than face certain defeat or to avoid splitting votes. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 6/9/2026.