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Prediction market on manifold. This will resolve somewhat subjectively to my best guess. I may resolve PROB if precise numbers aren't knowable. I won't trade after setting initial probabilities Measured starting from Dec 1, 2025 I will include estimates of smuggled chips (with a moderately high bar for evidence and estimates). If other superior blackwell models are exported (e.g. B300), I will also count the number of B30A equivalents (B300 ~= 2x B30A). RTX6000D will not count.
24h Volume: $496.427. Liquidity: $5,000. Resolves: 12/31/2026.