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Prediction market on metaculus. Russia first introduced a ban on gasoline exports in March 2024 and has repeatedly extended and re-imposed it as Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged refineries and triggered domestic fuel shortages. The latest measure: under Government Resolution No. 362 (2 April 2026), the gasoline export ban was extended to cover direct producers of petroleum products (oil companies such as Rosneft and Lukoil, not just traders) and is set to expire on 31 July 2026 (see [TASS report](https://tass.com/economy/2110669)). As of late May 2026, Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out or sharply curtailed roughly a quarter of Russia's refining capacity. Reuters and Rosstat report April refinery runs at a 16-year low (~4.69 million bpd, down 9.2% YoY); major refineries including Kirishi (KINEF), Ryazan, Moscow, YANOS, NORSI, Syzran, Tuapse and Volgograd have been hit. Wholesale gasoline shortages, exchange-sale suspensions, and consumer rationing in occupied Crimea have been reported. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has publicly signaled willingness to take further "response measures" to protect the domestic market, and Moscow has separately moved to restrict jet fuel and other product exports in May 2026. In past cycles (2023, 2024, 2025), Russia announced extensions of similar export bans either shortly before or shortly after the original expiry date. The question asks whether an extension covering a period beyond 31 July 2026 will be officially announced before 14 June 2026 — i.e., roughly 6–7 weeks before the current ban's expiry. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 3, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 6/14/2026.