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Prediction market on metaculus. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ongoing since February 2022, has resisted multiple rounds of negotiation. The Trump administration's 2025 mediation effort produced a 20-point peace plan but core impasses remain over territory in Donetsk oblast, security guarantees, the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and Ukraine's NATO trajectory. On May 8, 2026, President Trump announced a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire (May 9–11, 2026) tied to Russia's Victory Day, including a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both Moscow and Kyiv publicly acknowledged the pause, but it was strictly time-limited and was not accompanied by any written framework, treaty, or roadmap toward ending the war. Kremlin officials stated immediately afterward that a full peace deal remains "a very long way off." `{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "a8ba5f93c3316a5d", "sheet_id": "4"}}`
Resolves: 9/10/2026.