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Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 0.7 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. Century Aluminum. 2024 actual 0.69 Mt; Inola JV (Century-EGA) first metal targeted late 2028 with ~600 kt/yr nameplate. The 0.7 Mt strike for 2028 reflects steady-state operations; partial-year Inola contribution could push 2028 above this strike, making the probability anchored at or just above 50%. Resolution sources (priority order): Century Aluminum 10-K filings (SEC EDGAR) https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000949157 Century Aluminum quarterly earnings releases https://centuryaluminum.com/ International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2028): Alcoa Chalco EGA Hindalco Hongqiao Norsk Hydro Rio Tinto Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2028): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: Century CY2027
24h Volume: $13,819.054. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 5/31/2029.