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Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves YES if Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 2.0 million tonnes. Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution. Context. Norsk Hydro. ~2 Mt/yr capacity, mostly hydropower-fed; 2024 near capacity. The 2.0 Mt strike for 2028 reflects continued run-rate without new investment. Material deviation requires either Slovalco restart or capacity additions. Resolution sources (priority order): Norsk Hydro annual report and quarterly results https://www.hydro.com/en/global/investors/reports-and-presentations/ Norsk Hydro press releases https://www.hydro.com/en/global/media/news/ International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/ Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028) Upstream supply: Indonesia primary aluminum production Indonesia alumina capacity China alumina production Guinea bauxite exports Producers (CY2028): Alcoa Century Chalco EGA Hindalco Hongqiao Rio Tinto Rusal Vedanta Electricity hubs (CY2028): MISO Indiana Hub Nord Pool OMIE Spain Vic NEM WA SWIS Same market, other calendar year: Norsk Hydro CY2027
24h Volume: $4,275. Liquidity: $10,000. Resolves: 5/31/2029.