Loading
Prediction market on manifold. This market resolves on the date when GPT-4.1 becomes inaccessible, meaning none of the GPT-4.1 series models (nano, mini, "full," or any checkpoints) can be used by developers outside of OpenAI. Example of events that will trigger a resolution. All GPT-4.1 variants return "model not found" errors and OpenAI confirms removal Last remaining checkpoint goes offline Models removed from docs and confirmed inaccessible GPT-4.1 merged into a unified model with automatic routing, not callable directly OpenAI ceases to exist entirely with no successor entity, model becomes inaccessible OpenAI acquired, new owner later removes GPT-4.1 → resolves then Regional restrictions expand to global inaccessibility → resolves then Temporary outage later confirmed as permanent removal → resolves then Does not trigger a resolution Temporary outage without official removal announcement Price increase or rate limiting changes Regional restrictions (some regions blocked, others accessible) GPT-4.1 renamed but callable under new name and lineage is clear GPT-4.1 moved to enterprise-only tier GPT-4.1 accessible only via legacy endpoint GPT-4.1 available on Azure OpenAI but not api.openai.com GPT-4.1 open-sourced within 30 days of becoming unavailable otherwise Note: "Before Jul/Jan 202X" means before the beginning of the month of July/January 202X (timezone: Anywhere on earth)
24h Volume: $520. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2030.