Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if the earth's total (known, published) capacity for space-based solar power exceeds 2GW, averaged over 1 hour, any time before the year 2060. This refers to power generated by solar panels in space being transmitted to earth and captured for terrestrial use, at the output of the rectenna/receiver. This can be satisfied by the sum of multiple systems across multiple nations. This can be satisfied by the sum total of military LEO power delivery, but only if confirmed/published by corresponding authorities. I anticipate (and would prefer) that this will instead be satisfied by a geostationary system intended primarily for civilian benefit. Update 2025-11-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Space-based reflectors do not count. The solar panels must be in space (i.e., the initial conversion from sunlight to electricity must take place in space). Systems that merely reflect sunlight to Earth-based solar panels will not count toward the 2GW threshold.

24h Volume: $30.244. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2060.