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Prediction market on metaculus. Luigi Mangione is charged in New York County Supreme Court with first-degree murder (as an act of terrorism), second-degree murder, and weapons offenses in connection with the December 4, 2024 fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in Midtown Manhattan. He has pleaded not guilty to all state charges, and the state trial is currently scheduled to begin on September 8, 2026. He also faces separate federal charges in the Southern District of New York; the federal trial has been pushed to January 2027. In May 2026, the state trial judge issued a mixed evidentiary ruling: items recovered from the warrantless backpack search at a McDonald's in Altoona, PA (cell phone, wallet, passport, magazine, computer chip) were suppressed, but the most damaging items recovered in the later Altoona police-station inventory search — the alleged murder weapon and a handwritten notebook prosecutors describe as a confession — were ruled admissible. Commentators have noted that with the core evidence still in, the prosecution's position remains strong, and there have been no public reports of active plea negotiations. The death penalty is not available in the New York state case. A guilty plea is a formal change-of-plea entered on the record before the trial court, typically pursuant to a plea agreement. As of May 19, 2026, Mangione's operative plea in the state case is 'not guilty.' `{"format":"llm_question","info":{"rating":{"quality":3,"ambiguity":4,"resolvability":4,"passes":true}},"unique_id":"db67d213-6571-4a48-b0f7-33df0beb155e"}` `{"format": "bot_tournament_question", "info": {"hash_id": "dd16907ebb9b45f9", "sheet_id": "8"}}`
Resolves: 9/10/2026.