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Prediction market on manifold. Background Donald Trump's relationship with the judicial system has been contentious throughout his political career. During his first administration (2017-2021), there were multiple instances where his administration challenged, delayed implementation of, or sought workarounds to court orders: In 2017, after courts blocked his travel ban, the administration issued revised versions until finding one that could withstand judicial scrutiny The Trump administration initially resisted a Supreme Court ruling on adding a citizenship question to the census In a recent case (April 2024), the Supreme Court had to order the Trump administration to unfreeze foreign assistance payments that had been withheld Resolution Criteria This market will resolve as YES if, during the second Trump administration (2025-2029): Trump or his administration explicitly refuses to comply with or implement any ruling from SCOTUS, AND This refusal is documented through official statements, actions, or credible reporting from multiple mainstream news sources. The market will resolve as NO if: Trump complies with all Supreme Court rulings, OR Trump's administration challenges rulings through legal channels but ultimately complies after exhausting legal options. In case of legal ambiguities, I will resolve based on my perceived consensus among legal scholars. If no clear consensus emerged, the question will resolve NO. Update 2025-03-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In this update: The ruling must directly compel enforcement by the president for a refusal to count as non-compliance with a SCOTUS decision. A refusal to enforce a law (for example, as in the TikTok case) is treated as a failure to obey Congressional authority rather than a refusal to obey a SCOTUS ruling. The requirement for credible evidence (including multiple sources and a consensus among legal scholars) to establish that a specific SCOTUS order was ignored remains unchanged.
24h Volume: $25. Liquidity: $2,600. Resolves: 1/20/2029.