Earliest date we will see credible claims that a new space data center is cheaper than its terrestrial counterpart?

Prediction market on manifold. Elon says "in 36 months - probably closer to 30 months - the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space" and it will then get ridiculously better to be in space. Dwarkesh podcast Feb 5, 2026 This suggests his timeline for this market would be late 2028-2029 This market is intentionally being generous in favor of Elon's claim, but if there is a robust analysis that says terrestrial data center is $1 cheaper than space data center that doesn't count towards resolution. (At that point, though, I would expect someone to be able to write a credible analysis that says the space data center is cheaper) Resolution must accompany a link to said post or take place in 2046.

24h Volume: $300. Liquidity: $13,000. Resolves: 1/1/2051.