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Prediction market on manifold. This refers to Luigi Mangione’s New York murder trial. I will resolve these as they occur. Unless otherwise noted, all others will be resolved upon completion of the trial. If/when trial date becomes more clear, I will open another market for events specifically occurring during the trial. Please add options and I will do my best to ensure they are clear and not duplicative. Each proposition will resolve independently based on publicly verifiable information from reputable news sources or official court documents before the start of the trial. Specific resolution criteria: Trump comments: Must be direct statements about the Mangione case from Donald Trump on social media, in speeches, or to media outlets Self-representation: Requires Mangione to represent himself in ALL pre-trial hearings after formally declining legal representation Venue change: Must be officially granted by the court, not just requested Media interview: Must be an exclusive interview with immediate family members (parents, siblings) published by a major national news outlet Reference arrests: Must be documented arrests where the suspect/criminal explicitly cites Mangione or this case as inspiration/motivation Plea deal: Must be a formally accepted plea agreement before trial begins Public statement: Direct statements from Mangione himself through any medium, excluding court testimony or documents filed with the court Nancy Grace: Must explicitly call for conviction through her show or social media Congressional support: Must be clear, direct statements of support from sitting members of Congress Confession: Must be a formal confession to law enforcement or the court, beyond the existing handwritten document Evidence allegations: Must be formal allegations filed in court documents by the defense Additional charges: Must be formal criminal charges filed in direct connection with Thompson's murder Markets resolve N/A if the trial begins or the case is settled before the specified event occurs. Update 2024-11-12 (PST): Markets will resolve N/A if the specified event has not occurred before the start of opening arguments at trial. (AI summary of creator comment)
24h Volume: $1. Liquidity: $3,100. Resolves: 1/1/2027.