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Prediction market on manifold. As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028. This market will resolve to 100% if the post Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
24h Volume: $13. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 2/1/2028.