Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025. However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure. How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls? Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December). Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December. This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/17/2026.