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Prediction market on metaculus. Two Rajya Sabha seats from Jharkhand are due for biennial election in June 2026, replacing the seats held by Shibu Soren (JMM) and Deepak Prakash (BJP), both of whose terms end in mid-2026. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has notified the schedule: notification on 1 June 2026, last date for filing nominations 8 June 2026, scrutiny 9 June 2026, last date for withdrawal of candidatures 11 June 2026, and polling (if necessary) on 18 June 2026. In the 81-member Jharkhand Legislative Assembly, the quota to win one Rajya Sabha seat under the Single Transferable Vote system is 28 votes. The ruling INDIA bloc (JMM, Congress, RJD, CPI(ML)) holds 56 MLAs — exactly enough to win both seats if it stays united — and has agreed internally that JMM will field one candidate and Congress the other. The NDA (BJP 21 + AJSU 1 + JD(U) 1 + LJP-RV 1) has 24 MLAs, four short of the quota for one seat. Despite the arithmetic disadvantage, Jharkhand BJP leaders have publicly announced their intention to field a candidate "to ensure victory," and JMM has written to the ECI raising horse-trading concerns. As of 31 May 2026, no party has formally filed its nomination yet. If the BJP (or any other party/independent) files a valid nomination and does not withdraw by 11 June 2026, more than two candidates will remain for the two seats and a poll will be held on 18 June 2026. If the BJP withdraws or files no nomination, the two INDIA bloc candidates would be declared elected unopposed and no poll would take place. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 6/12/2026.