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Prediction market on manifold. Background GiveWell is a nonprofit that conducts in-depth research to determine the most effective charitable giving opportunities. In recent years, their fundraising has shown consistent growth, with approximately $253 million raised from donors excluding Open Philanthropy in 2022, $255 million in 2023, and $308 million in 2024. In April 2023 they made the following forecast, albeit with wide confidence intervals: [image][image]Resolution Criteria This market will resolve based on the total amount of money raised by GiveWell during the 2025 fiscal year (February 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026), excluding all funds from Open Philanthropy. The amount will be determined using GiveWell's official financial reports or public announcements. Resolution will be based on: Direct donations to GiveWell, whether or not they are re-granted to non-profits or not. For example, in 2023, this would resolve to $255 million, because that was the amount listed under 'Funds Raised' by GiveWell, though only $216 million were 'Funds Directed' The following will be excluded: Any funds from Open Philanthropy Considerations GiveWell's fundraising can be influenced by major world events, economic conditions, and shifts in donor behavior Year-end giving typically accounts for a significant portion of annual donations Changes in GiveWell's charity recommendations or research findings could impact donor behavior The resolution amount may take several months into 2026 to be officially reported - GiveWell suggest at least 6 months, though their 2024 numbers were published on their blog in August 2025. So the deadline will be extended as necessary.
24h Volume: $219.234. Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 12/31/2026.