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Prediction market on manifold. For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform. This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls. If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other. If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place. Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other. If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place. A split resolution is a last resort.
24h Volume: $224.841. Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 12/31/2026.