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Prediction market on manifold. Resolves each threshold based on the peak annualized revenue run rate for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before June 30, 2026. "Annualized revenue" means any reported revenue figure extrapolated to a yearly rate (monthly ×12, quarterly ×4, or explicitly stated ARR). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO when the market resolves (see below). Resolution timing. Revenue disclosure cadence changes at IPO: pre-IPO, ARR figures leak ad-hoc through press; post-IPO, revenue arrives on a quarterly filing schedule with a ~40–45 day lag from quarter-end. If OpenAI is still private at June 30, 2026: market resolves at close, based on figures published on or before June 30, 2026. If OpenAI is public at June 30, 2026: market waits up to 45 days after June 30, 2026 for the quarter-ending 10-Q or earnings release, then resolves. Post-IPO quarterly revenue is annualized as quarterly × 4 and attributed to quarter-end. Earlier publications — including pre-IPO disclosures — still contribute to the peak. Sources. Pre-IPO: credible reporting from The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, or equivalent; official company announcements and fundraising disclosures. Post-IPO: 10-Q / 10-K filings and official earnings releases. A single credible report is sufficient to resolve a threshold YES if not contradicted by other reliable sources. Analyst estimates and rumors do not trigger resolution. See also: @/Bayesian/openai-highest-annualized-revenue-r (this market) @/Bayesian/openai-highest-annualized-revenue-r-REAzAN5ElN @/JoshYou/will-openai-achieve-a-revenue-run-r @/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-annualized-revenu
24h Volume: $620. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/1/2026.