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Prediction market on manifold. See tweet: https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1760374390636913045?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg In 2-4 years, if we're still alive, it'll be interesting to see what happens to kids being de-facto raised by tablets displaying multimodal LLM babysitters. ("No, honey, you can't put Elsa away if you get angry; Elsa has to alert me if she can't see you anymore.") This resolves based on the spirit of the question. I will not bet in this market to remain objective and I’m happy to clarify questions and refine the resolution criteria. If the resolution is controversial, I’ll confer with manifold superusers and admins. This market resolves exactly 4 years after the tweet (Feb 21, 2028). Gonna write down some cases that could cause this market to resolve YES, since the description is obviously vague. Obviously this does not require a world where EVERY kid has an LLM babysitter to resolve YES: -There is a large company that sells AI babysitting software, and there are many parents that use it. It’s clearly a real product, and not just a niche thing that AI enthusiasts try out on their kids, and it ~works~ at least somewhat like a babysitter (as in it is not just equivalent to a tv show for parents to put on for their kids to entertain them). The kids don't need to be ~exclusively~ raised by the AI, but it should be "de-facto raising" them in some sense of the term, which is a moderately higher bar than just keeping them company. -A major chatbot (the equivalent of Gemini or ChatGPT in 4 years) has an interface viable for babysitting kids and many parents use it for such, to the extent that there are Atlantic articles or whatever about parenting with AI, twitter discourse on the subject, OpenAI/google advertise these use cases in their marketing, etc.
24h Volume: $76.43. Liquidity: $1,143. Resolves: 2/22/2028.