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Prediction market on manifold. To qualify, the crisis should be listed here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis If Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to resolving according to a different source. Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Consensus Clarification If Wikipedia lists a constitutional crisis but there is a broad consensus that it has not occurred, the resolution may be based on a different, less biased source. A broad consensus requires more than strong disagreement (for example, stark differences between left and right perspectives); in such a case, Wikipedia remains the guiding source. Ongoing events mentioned on Wikipedia do not yet qualify as a full-fledged constitutional crisis. Update 2025-04-26 (PST): - Factual descriptions required: The Wikipedia entry must directly state that the event is a constitutional crisis. Phrases like "some have argued" do not qualify as a listing for resolution purposes. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing procedure: If the situation is evolving at market close such that there is significant doubt whether an event that occurred before close will be recorded in Wikipedia as a constitutional crisis, resolution may be delayed until the matter is settled. In such cases, the market will resolve once the relevant Wikipedia entry is stable in the resultant resolution for a week.
24h Volume: $550. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 12/31/2029.