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Prediction market on manifold. See https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ Resolves to the longest 80% Time Horizon, as measured by METR, for any AI system, by the end of September 2026. Answers that are passed early can be resolved early. The most recent suite of METR TH tasks will be used for resolution (whether v1.1, v2, v3, etc.). IMPORTANT: Resolves to all thresholds reached, not just to the highest one that applies. eg for a 11 hour 80% time horizon, "≥10h" resolves yes, but so does ≥6h and ≥8h [link preview]See also: @/Bayesian/best-metr-time-horizons-in-2026 @/Bayesian/best-metr-80-time-horizon-before-au @/Bayesian/best-metr-80-time-horizon-before-oc
24h Volume: $1,288. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 9/30/2026.