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Prediction market on manifold. See https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed and similar questions for AGI. The criteria is that one of them will resolve YES. I don't see a lot of singularity questions but there is this: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/singularity-by-2030. [link preview]
24h Volume: $237.266. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2029.