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Prediction market on manifold. The MLB will start the 2026 session in April. After that season, the collective bargaining agreement will expire. Before the next season starts, WHENEVER it starts (potentially not in 2027!), will there be a salary cap? It's been reported that the owners want one and that the players union is hard-line against it no matter the concessions. That's the spirit I intend to judge in - are the players actually 100% against it no matter what? Or will the owners manage to create some condition where the players accept it? Resolution criteria: For a rule to be "a salary cap" it must be a flat dollar-denominated limit applied equally to all teams in the league, every year. An increase in luxury tax or other penalties for going over the limit will not count, unless they are so harsh that I subjectively think no team will ever do it (eg fines greater than a team's yearly revenue, owner forced sell the team, team ineligible for playoffs, etc). Draft pick penalties, luxury tax that is a multiple of the cap overage, etc will not count. I will count a salary cap that starts any amount of time in the future, including conditionally, such as "if revenue is below xyz, then salary cap" or "salary cap starting in 2033 unless abc." I will resolve as soon as any major league regular season games are played that are not part of the 2026-2027 season, even if negotiations are ongoing or some very short term deal has been signed.
24h Volume: $57. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 4/14/2027.