Loading
Prediction market on metaculus. On December 15, 2025, fintech [pioneer](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paypal-mafia-built-1-5-175102356.html) PayPal, which also owns Venmo, [announced](https://investor.pypl.com/news-and-events/news-details/2025/PayPal-Submits-Applications-to-Establish-an-Industrial-Bank-to-Expand-Access-to-Financial-Services-for-U-S--Small-Businesses/default.aspx) that it had submitted applications to regulators to establish PayPal Bank in the United States. Technically its aim is to form an Industrial Loan Company (ILC), which [is able to](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46489) operate in many ways like a bank (by taking FDIC-insured deposits and making loans) while at the same time having exemptions from the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956.  PayPal's application sparked strong opposition from groups such as the [Independent Community Bankers of America](https://www.independentbanker.org/w/icba-others-oppose-paypal-s-ilc-application) and the [Bank Policy Institute](https://bpi.com/bpi-and-icba-comment-on-paypal-banks-application-for-deposit-insurance/), who argued that PayPal Bank's parent company's exemption from the BHCA could give it unfair competitive advantages relative to traditional banks and result in excess loans, creating risks to the Deposit Insurance Fund.  FDIC Chairman Travis Hill has [called for](https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2025/statement-acting-chairman-travis-hill) more de novo banks "so there is a healthy pipeline of new entrants in the banking sector." Recently, the FDIC [approved](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/ford-gm-stellantis-join-crypto-172558720.html) applications for automakers Ford, GM and Stellantis to form banks and is [considering](https://www.bankingdive.com/news/upstart-apply-occ-fdic-fed-national-bank-charter-ai-lending/814429/) an application from AI-lending marketplace fintech [Upstart](https://www.upstart.com/).  Historically, applications to the FDIC by companies that are not traditional banks have faced an uphill battle. [Walmart](https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna17645331) and [Home Depot](https://hbsdealer.com/news/home-depot-rescinds-bid-enerbank) have had to give up on their efforts to either start or acquire a bank. SoFi, Nelnet and Square eventually received approvals, but only after undergoing years of scrutiny and regulatory battles. 
Resolves: 7/1/2027.