By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Prediction market on manifold. The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things The full text is: "In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI." Judgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus. Ambiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.

24h Volume: $50. Liquidity: $1,665. Resolves: 1/1/2030.