Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?

Prediction market on manifold. Ending this market in 2030, as the latest IRB report estimates this as the launch date. https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-sample-return-budget-and-schedule-unrealistic-independent-review-concludes/ [link preview]Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications: If the mission is NASA-led and has a primary purpose of retrieving samples, it is considered MSR. Missions where the primary purpose is not sample return (e.g., humans landing on Mars) do not count as MSR. Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications: If NASA contacts a commercial company to complete Mars Sample Return, the mission is not cancelled. If NASA determines they do not want to move forward with MSR at this time and decides to table it for an indefinite amount of time, the mission is considered “cancelled” as there is no plan to move forward.

24h Volume: $9.567. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/2/2030.