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Prediction market on metaculus. On May 18, 2026, a federal advisory jury in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California (Oakland) unanimously found that Elon Musk's claims against Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, OpenAI, and Microsoft (case no. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR, Musk v. Altman et al.) were barred by California's three-year statute of limitations after less than two hours of deliberation. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers adopted the verdict the same day and entered judgment dismissing all claims. Musk publicly criticized the outcome as a "calendar technicality" and stated that his legal team would appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. Under Federal Rule of Appellate Procedure 4(a)(1)(A), a civil notice of appeal in federal court must generally be filed with the district clerk within 30 days after entry of the judgment. With judgment entered May 18, 2026, Musk's statutory deadline to file a notice of appeal falls on or about June 17, 2026. The question asks whether Musk will file the notice of appeal in the district court docket before June 14, 2026 — three days before the statutory deadline expires. The case docket is publicly tracked on CourtListener at https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69013420/musk-v-altman/ and on the Northern District of California's case page at https://cand.uscourts.gov/cases-e-filing/cases/424-cv-04722-ygr/musk-v-altman-et-al . As of late May 2026, no notice of appeal had yet been entered on the docket. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 6/14/2026.