Will Gwern talk mostly positively or negatively about the move to San Fransisco, in a year?
Prediction market on manifold. According to stuff gwern writes or says publicly about it. if it's ambiguous, may resolve N/A or to a percentage. If I amass a large position it will be resolved by manifold moderators.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/gwern-reveals-the-true-meaning-of-e?play=true)
24h Volume: $250. Liquidity: $1,500. Resolves: 6/11/2026.