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Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria Resolves YES if, by 2026-06-30 Nicholas Decker (x.com/captgouda24) is proven to be on, or beginning long term feminizing hormone therapy (e.g., estrogen ± anti-androgen). Valid Feminizing Hormone Therapy must place Nicholas Decker at an female estrogen level (>200pg/ml) and sub-male testosterone levels (<100ng/dl) for at least 2 months in a row. HRT Femboy (feminizing hormone therapy with no gender identity change) will Resolve as YES as long as resolution standards are met Acceptable proof All proof must include HRT results that fulfill the resplution criteria (may be submitted privately) Resolves NO if no such public statement exists by the cutoff. Not sufficient: social transition alone (name/pronouns/clothing), legal changes without medical disclosure, third‑party claims or rumors, unverified/leaked documents. Identity: This market refers to the specific “Nicholas Decker” intended by the creator. If multiple people share the name or identity is disputed, the creator must pin a link to the subject’s primary public profile within 7 days of market creation; otherwise resolve N/A. For permanence, archived snapshots (e.g., https://web.archive.org/) of qualifying posts/statements may be used if originals are edited/deleted. Background “Medical transition (MtF)” typically refers to feminizing HRT and/or gender‑affirming surgeries; it is distinct from social or legal transition. Public verification generally requires the subject’s explicit disclosure due to medical privacy. Considerations Announcement date vs. event date: if a later post says “I started HRT in May 2026,” that counts as YES (dated before cutoff). If it only announces intent without confirming start, it does not count.regu
24h Volume: $250. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 7/31/2026.