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Prediction market on manifold. X user @wordgrammer writes: Instead of SWE bench. OpenAI should just hire a single guy to rewrite the entire Linux kernel from scratch in Rust. He can use whatever LLM he wants, but no other humans are allowed to work on the project! Once he succeeds, we have AGI. https://x.com/wordgrammer/status/1874414546594754639?t=eiZwpv3ozxMJfameNJZ3vw&s=19 I actually disagree that this necessarily means AGI, but I think it's a good way to measure progress. Additional criteria: Needs to be able to run chromium compiled for linux without changes to chromium and render a video from YouTube on a 4K screen with sound. Needs to support wifi. Be able to run on the two most popular CPU architectures that Linux is run on. As of 2025 these are ARM and x86-64/AMD64. If no one attempts this, it can be a different project if I'm convinced it's equivalent or more complex. I am very familiar with OS kernels and I think I can be a good judge for this. Rewriting a chromium (including V8 and other components) is a good example. Wordgrammer also suggests rewriting LLVM. If you have any idea for how else to evaluate other projects please suggest so. If all the attempts failed, the longest attempt needs to have lasted at least 80 active work hours for the human for this to count as a clear NO. Otherwise we will consider other projects. I explicitly do NOT require that kernel modules for Linux can be loaded as-is, because Linux doesn't provide a stable API for kernel modules anyway. There needs to be some way to minimally verify only one person worked on this. A log of all the messages sent to the AI with timestamps is sufficient, but a streamed or fully filmed attempt is better. Code can be based on the C code of the kernel, but needs to use good Rust practices. No unsafe unless it's really required (e.g. in memory allocator) Minimal parts that have a very good justification for remaining in C can remain in C (e.g. heavy direct memory access and unlikely to increase LPE attack surface) I will not be trading in this market. Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): WiFi Support Clarification: Drivers located at Linux Wireless Drivers are considered sufficient to connect to a WiFi network. Update 2026-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative Project Consideration: A C compiler in Rust that can compile the Linux Kernel (as demonstrated by Nicholas Carlini's team of Claude agents) is considered a step closer to an "equivalent or more complex project" but is not sufficient for resolution on its own. Additional requirement for non-Linux-kernel projects: The creator wants to see at least some work with peripherals before considering resolution on a project other than the Linux kernel itself. Single person requirement may be relaxed: If the Linux kernel team decides to actually take on this project, the single person requirement may be relaxed.
24h Volume: $634.233. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2031.