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Prediction market on manifold. The AI in question must be given a prompt/command to make an operating system and deliver a functioning piece of software without human feedback, oversight, or assistance, while also spending less than one day working on it. The operating system must be human-usable and at least as good as, say Windows 95 in providing basic services like having a graphical interface, scheduling application software, managing RAM, and interfacing with hardware such as input and storage devices. It must be system software running directly on a machine -- not runing via some other OS. The AI must write all the OS software involved, rather than importing or adapting existing OS code. It's okay if the AI uses general purpose software libraries. It's okay if the AI rips off the general structure of an existing OS as long as the code isn't verbatim. It's okay if it only runs on one physical machine. It's okay if it's a little buggy/insecure as long as it's stable enough to install and run DOOM for at least two hours without crashing. It's okay if the AI consults digital models of humans (including uploads) as long as no flesh-and-blood humans were involved. Public proof of the AI doing the task is necessary, though the AI doesn't need to be commercially available. On Jan 1, 2044, if this question still hasn't resolved, it will resolve to 2044. I reserve the right to decide this according to my best judgment, but I'll use a poll if it's ambiguous whether something should count.
24h Volume: $61.079. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 1/1/2044.