Will Hakainde Hichilema receive at least 65% of the vote in the first round of Zambia's 2026 presidential election?

Prediction market on metaculus. President Hakainde Hichilema won the [2021 Zambian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Zambian_general_election), beating the incumbent president in the first round, with 59% of the vote. Polling data for the 2026 election has been sparse, but a national survey conducted in October 2025 by Dr. Namuunda Mutombo of the University of Zambia [found](https://www.mwebantu.com/opinion-poll-shows-president-hakainde-hichilema-headed-for-victory-in-2026/) Hichilema with 60% support as compared with 35% for the opposition field.  Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/zambia) Zambia as 53/100 (Partly Free), saying: > Zambia’s political system features regular multiparty elections, and some civil liberties are respected. However, opposition parties face onerous legal and practical obstacles to fair competition, and the government regularly invokes restrictive laws to narrow political space. Human Rights Watch has [found](https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/zambia#6928b9) "a marked increase in intolerance toward dissent and political opposition." The Christian Churches Monitoring Group, which [provides](https://ccmgzambia.org/what-we-do/) non-partisan, official election monitors in Zambia, has [documented](https://ccmgzambia.org/ccmg-condemns-the-countrywide-political-violence-that-characterized-candidates-nominations-ahead-of-the-13-august-general-elections/) 12 incidents of political violence across 6 provinces ahead of the August 2026 election. In addition, the EU has received an [invitation](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/zambia-invites-eu-as-observer-to-2026-general-elections/3575445) to send election monitors. 

Resolves: 8/14/2026.