Will Senegal formally restructure its external debt before 2028?

Prediction market on metaculus. In 2024, Senegal's government [uncovered](https://theconversation.com/senegals-crisis-why-debt-restructuring-may-be-the-least-bad-option-276663) one of the largest hidden debt scandals in history, finding that the previous administration had understated fiscal deficits by roughly half and concealed an estimated \$13.3 billion in public debt. It was confirmed in February 2025 that actual public debt stood at approximately 100% of GDP, not the 74.4% previously reported. In response, the IMF suspended their \$1.8 billion loan program with the Senegalese government, citing data misreporting. Without direct access to the Eurobond market, and with the current Eurobond obligations trading below par, the Senegalese government is [pursuing talks](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/senegal-president-personally-handling-imf-debt-talks-office-says-2026-05-12/) with the IMF to find a workable solution. 

Resolves: 1/1/2028.