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Prediction market on manifold. Background Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is currently ineligible to run for office until 2030 due to a ruling by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for allegedly abusing political power during his presidency. The "Ficha Limpa" (Clean Record) law is a key piece of legislation that prevents politicians convicted of certain crimes or electoral violations from running for office. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if: Changes to Brazil's ineligibility laws, including the "Ficha Limpa" law, are enacted before the 2026 election registration deadline. These changes specifically enable Bolsonaro to legally register as a candidate for the 2026 presidential election The market will resolve NO if: No relevant changes are made to the ineligibility laws Changes are made but they do not enable Bolsonaro to run Changes are made after the registration deadline for the 2026 election Considerations Changing the "Ficha Limpa" law would require approval from both houses of Congress Such changes could face constitutional challenges in the Supreme Court Even if changes are approved by Congress, they may need to survive judicial review to be implemented The timeline is relatively tight, as electoral law changes typically need to be enacted at least one year before the election to take effect
24h Volume: $250. Liquidity: $1,947. Resolves: 8/2/2026.