Will El Niño be declared before December 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolves YES if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issues an "El Niño Advisory" before 1 December 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Background: https://wmo.int/media/news/wmo-prepare-el-nino [link preview]

24h Volume: $500. Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 11/30/2026.