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Prediction market on manifold. "You don't get to the moon by climbing a tree" - Sam Hinkie The goal of this market is to get a general sense of the direction franchises are headed - are they more likely given their makeup to win a super bowl? Or crash out the other direction and finish with the worst record. The extreme degree of parity in the NFL, mostly from a hard salary cap and draft mechanisms to promote parity, is what makes the football season so much fun (especially compared to the MLB and European sports that have much less strong mechanisms). Given this parity, how much can we actually project about the future of a franchise, in terms of extremes, from their current position? Only one team can win the super bowl or be the worst every year, so is there really that much of a spread? Bet and let's see. 17 NFL Franchises have more lately had the worst season of any team in the league than win the Super Bowl (if they've won it at all), 14 Franchises have more lately won the Super Bowl than finish with the worst season. The Vikings haven't done either in their history. Resolves "YES" if a franchise wins a Super Bowl in a season. Resolves "NO" if a franchise finishes with the worst record in a season (as decided by draft order, NOT who ends up with the first overall pick). I'll also re-add the teams after each year. If a franchise folds, they will resolve "NO" (an extreme loss). If a franchise is renamed or relocated, I'll just change the name on the answer, there won't be any N/A or resolution. If they NFL folds or substantially changes, all teams will be N/A'd. Manifold Scouts @/StopPunting/which-quarterbacks-will-win-a-super @/StopPunting/manifold-scouts-nfl-quarterback-pea @/StopPunting/manifold-scouts-nfl-head-coach-peak @/StopPunting/future-nfl-head-coaches-add-answers @/StopPunting/nfl-coach-survival-pool-202324-offs @/StopPunting/manifold-scouts-nfl-head-coach-surv @/StopPunting/nfl-coach-survival-pool
24h Volume: $3.195. Liquidity: $3,300. Resolves: 3/1/3000.