Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?

Prediction market on manifold. AGI existence is determined by general consensus Resolves to YES if general consensus of those who interact with the potential AGI is that it is AGI. Resolves to NO if after 5 years (January 19 2029) it has not resolved to YES.

24h Volume: $2.405. Liquidity: $1,100. Resolves: 1/20/2029.